Bitcoin is still significantly below the projections stock-to-flow advocates proposed for post-halving. According to crypto one analyst highly opposed to the model and thinks market cycles are instead lengthening, says that Bitcoin has just “12 weeks” left to prove the four-year-cycle theory valid.
Bitcoin price is trading at $10,500, holding strong above a key resistance level despite several retests of support. Not even negative news regarding a major crypto industry player, a hack, or the US President contracting COVID has been able to stop its trend.
Crypto analysts challenges four-year market cycle theories
“$55K by May 2020,” was a common phrase thrown around in the cryptocurrency sphere during 2019, after Bitcoin price had increased sharply from $3,000 to $13,000 in only three months. Even CNBC hosts were citing the model at the time.
This was the result of the stock-to-flow model, investors hoped, but soon understood that the bear market wasn’t over. The cryptocurrency fell from the 2019 highs finally slamming back down to the $3,000 range prior to the halving.
The halving has now come and gone, and Bitcoin price is not only nowhere near $55,000 per BTC the model was projecting, but it is also still below $11,000.
Even after reaching $12,400 in 2020 thus far has only resulted in a lower high – typically a bearish sign that lower lows could be next.
It doesn’t necessarily mean that the stock-to-flow model should be ignored completely, but more and more opposing analysts are drawing a line in the sand. Recently, various levels of invalidation were provided that would prove the model or any variation of it was wrong.
Now, another top crypto analyst who instead believes in lengthening cycles for Bitcoin is suggesting that if it can’t make a new all-time high before 2020 is over, then the four-year-cycle theory is dead.
Bitcoin price has 12 weeks to set a new all time high hr Halving theories are wrong
Crypto chartist Dave the Wave has made a number of correct calls in relation to Bitcoin price bottoms and tops are connected to a long-term log chart he often shares demonstrating the cryptocurrency’s historic price action.
The chart rarely changes, aside from some localized short term TA signals or fib levels being drawn. Instead, the analyst simply updates the log chart based on the “buy zone.” The analyst believes that although Bitcoin is bullish and is in the buy zone, that doesn’t mean new all-time highs are coming this year.
If the price reached within the next “12 weeks” then Dave the Wave says that it is time to hang up the four-year-cycle and halving-based cycle theories for ever. And while this isn’t directly calling out the stock-to-flow model, because that popular valuation method is also related to the halving taking place every four years, it is in the crosshairs also.