Bitcoin hash rate drops amid seasonal miner migration in China

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Mining data aggregators attribute a drop in Bitcoin (BTC) hash rate to the end of the Sichuan’s rainy season, resulting in many miners seasonal migration in China.
On Oct. 26, Thomas Heller of Bitcoin (BTC) mining blog Hashr8 said that roughly 22 exahashes per second (EH/s) of mining power had left the BTC network, which coincides with the end of the season the previous day (based on weather forecasts).
Kevin Zhang of mining-focused Digital Currency Group subsidiary Foundry also predicted a 20 EH/s drop, saying that the seven-day average for Bitcoin’s hash rate was 132.9 EH/s while daily hash rate concurrently tagged 112.9 EH/s.
Blockchain.com forecasts Bitcoin’s hash rate to have fallen from 151.1 EH/s on Oct. 24 to 116.3 EH/s the following day.
The province of Sichuan is considered a key place in Bitcoin industry as it is one of the world’s largest hubs for mining activity. Miners flock there to take advantage of cheap hydro-electricity during the rainy season and then leave quickly.
According to the most recent data from the University of Cambridge’s Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (BECI), the province showed 18.5% of global hash rate as of April 2020 — which was double the rate prior to the rainy season.
Heller said that many miners operating in Sichuan were relocating overseas or to the provinces of Xinjian or Inner Mongolia, which represented 30.1% and 7.7% of global hash rate in April respectively.
In 2018, it was predicted that 80% of Chinese miners migrate to Sichuan for rainy season from other parts of the country. CoinShares data published during December 2019 estimated Sichuan represents 54% of mining activity worldwide.
Heller also estimated that the next Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment at the end of this week will see a reduction of between 7.4% and 8.8%. If accurate, the event would comprise 2020’s second-largest negative adjustment after the near 16% fall that followed the ‘Black Thursday’ crash in March.

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