Bitcoin hasn’t seen 3 positive consecutive quarters in three years

Spread the love

Bitcoin has not faced three positive consecutive quarters since three years ago, according to historical data.
Latest data from Skew shows Bitcoin (BTC) has not seen three positive consecutive quarters since 2017. If BTC ends Q4 with a net gain, it would be three consecutive winning quarters for the first time.
Q4 has been mostly bearish for Bitcoin since 2018 
Historical data is not in Bitcoin’s favor as the last two Q4s closed with 42.54% drops in 2018 and 13.6% drops in 2019.
From late 2016 and up to 2018, Bitcoin saw five positive consecutive quarters and recorded an all-time high by the end of 2017. 
Analysts attributed that historic rally to two important factors. First, BTC saw a significant mainstream frenzy across major markets such as the U.S. and South Korea. Second, BTC came off a block reward halving in July 2016, which is a generally bullish milestone event for the network.
A block reward halving has a positive impact on BTC as it has a direct effect on its newly issued supply. A halving decreases the rate at which new Bitcoin is created by half, causing the circulating supply to fall over time.
So BTC tends to see big rallies after halvings. The problem is that in 2016, the post-halving rally came 15 months after the halving happened, and some analysts have indeed drawn similarities with how the beginnings of that bull run to the current period.
The latest halving, which happens every four years, happened in May 2020. If a similar cycle as 2016 plays out, BTC would likely see an explosive rally by the last quarter of 2021.
However, since 2018, Bitcoin has not performed well during the fourth quarter. The subpar performance could be cyclical for various reasons. Investors in the U.S. could sell BTC for clarity on year-end taxation and owners in Asia might sell ahead of the new year.
But two factors could potentially boost the bullish case for BTC by the year’s end: gold is going up and the dollar is going down. 
Analysts at the Swiss investment banking giant UBS suggest that gold continuously rally throughout 2021. The prediction coincides with the weakness of the dollar against other reserve currencies.
What traders expect in the short term
In the near term, users are becoming more careful about the price trend of BTC, particularly as the U.S. dollar is starting to find some footing as the U.S. election is coming.
Meanwhile, analysts are closely observing two important technical levels at $10,500 and $10,000 of BTC.  Losing the $10,000 support area could result in a major pullback. The movement of whales shows that the $9,800 support region has weakened, which might cause a bigger correction.
Edward Morra, a crypto analyst, said he remains bearish until BTC closes back above $11,000. He wrote:

“Still bearish until it closes above $11k with conviction on daily. Looking for a reaction at ~$10500-10450, this is closest support on daily.”

 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.