According to data from Whalemap which is an on-chain analysis company tracking Bitcoin whales, the $9,800 support level has weakened.
The researchers at Whalemap track whale activities by following addresses owned by whales, who are individual investors that have big amounts of Bitcoin. They explained:
“Some HODLer activity yesterday. Bubbles show where these HODLer coins were coming from. The biggest bubbles come from the pre-corona area at 9800. To me this means our support at 9800 just got a little weaker.”
Several whale clusters at $9,800 have become larger in the past days. The data shows that whales who bought at $9,800 are transferring their Bitcoin to exchanges.
Since the data suggests that some whales who bought at $9,800 might sell soon, an argument could be made that the support has weakened.
But whether the weakening support would mean Bitcoin would fall below $9,800 is a different scenario. The $9,800 level is weaker than before but that doesn’t necessarily mean that BTC would drop below it.
A short-term bearish scenario could play out if other whales push BTC down to the $9,800 support level. In that case, the weak support could amplify the downturn of Bitcoin in the near term.
If Bitcoin does not fall to sub-$10,000 in the short-term future, then the support level itself becomes less relevant.
Red bubbles on the Whalemap’s charts grow when whales move their funds out of their wallets. The analysts explained:
“Red bubbles show locations at which the hodlers originally held their BTC before transacting it. So imagine you bought bitcoins at the $20k peak and yesterday you decided to send them to an exchange for instance. In this scenario – red bubble at 2017 peak will appear.”
In the short term, a bearish case for Bitcoin is that whales who bought at $9,800 sell above $11,000 and bring the price down to sub-$10,000 for a pullback.
Whales who bought Bitcoin in late 2018 sold two years after holding them. Since then, the BTC price fell sharply from $12,500 to as low as $9,800 across many exchanges.
Likewise, Bitcoin is at a heavy high-time frame resistance at $11,100. A sell-off from whales at the current level could trigger a sizable pullback and a strong market reaction.
A highly-anticipated CME is also available at $9,600 and the rejection of $11,100 could result in institutions trying to close that gap.
For now, the sentiment around Bitcoin remains positive and promising. Bitcoin has remained above $10,700 following its recent minor rejection from $11,100.
Michael van de Poppe, a trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, said the chances of an $11,100 retest is higher. He said:
“The $10,750 area held and we’re targeting the range high here again. Crucial breaker for bullish continuation is $11,100-11,300. If that breaks, we’ll head towards $12,000.”