Increasing correlation of Bitcoin with stocks led to retreating both after news in which President Donald Trump tested positive for coronavirus.
That’s due to the correlation between Bitcoin and the benchmark S&P 500 stocks index remains positive, meaning that its price movements are consistent with those in equity markets. Moreover, Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading clocks in at 45, while the equity index’s is at 51. That suggests the cryptocurrency’s fall has been more severe than the overall stock market drop.
The S&P 500 has lost 6% since its high in September, while Bitcoin’s down about 15% since its mid-August peak.
“We need more clarity on the election cycle and additional stimulus to help get things moving again in equities — and also in Bitcoin,” said Meltem Demirors, chief strategy officer of CoinShares. “Bitcoin has stayed range-bound despite a slew of positive news, largely because there is not enough inflation due to weak aggregate demand. We need Bitcoin’s behavior to match its narrative before we see a breakout.”
U.S. stocks dropped on Friday as investors weighed the implications of Trump’s positive test for the coronavirus. Investors had already been bracing for turmoil ahead of presidential elections. The CBOE Volatility Index, known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, jumped the most in a month.
Bitcoin fell for the fourth day. It fell as much as 2.1% on Friday to around $10,387 after U.S. equity markets opened for regular trading. Peer coins such as Bitcoin Cash, Dash, Litecoin and Monero also retreated.
Though Bitcoin has rebounded since its springtime slump and has gained approximately 50% this year, it’s hovered in a tight range for almost a month. The coin is coming off a rough September, in which it lost 8.3%. That was its worst month after markets crashed in March at the start of the pandemic.
According to Mike McGlone, an analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence, Bitcoin could benefit in such environment that additional upsides for equities and bonds are limited.
The coin is “growing up fast” and many of its adoption indicators are positive, he said.
“Bitcoin is unique due to its limited supply, which unlike most assets isn’t influenced by prices, tilting the bias toward appreciation,” McGlone said. In addition, it “appears as the leader in the early days of a paradigm shift toward digital money and stores of value. It may fail, but we see that as unlikely.”