Model creator: Bitcoin will be around $12,000 by the end of November

Spread the love

The author behind a valuation model for Bitcoin that’s based on Metcalfe’s Law says Bitcoin will be possibly priced around $12,000 by the end of November and reach $1 million in 10 years.
On Oct. 11, Timothy Peterson, Global Macro Manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, twitted that there is “90% chance that Bitcoin will never again close below $11K” and it will be possibly priced around $12,000 by the end of November. Disclaimer: While he’s deadly serious, the prediction recalls the oft stated meme about the “last chance” to buy Bitcoin under $10K, which has frequently been proven wrong.
However, the analyst says his model, which he first described in 2017, has been quite accurate so far. Peterson claimed that he predicted the end of year prices of the cryptocurrency in the past two years. For 2018, he predicted a price of $3,500 — the actual price on Dec. 31 was $3,782, a difference of only 7%. Peterson also predicted a mid-range estimate of $7,000 for the end of 2019. The price of Bitcoin was $7,243 on that day.
Using these methods, the analyst believes Bitcoin (BTC) will be valued at $100,000 by January 2024 and $1 million by March 2028.
Bitcoin’s supply is easily ascertainable — more than 18.5 million coins as the time of writing — and Peterson thinks demand can be measured by the number of BTC wallets. Using this information Peterson created a price model based on Metcalfe’s Law, which says the value of a communications network is proportional to the square of the number of its owners. In Bitcoin’s case, the price would be proportional to the square of the number of connected users holding coins on the blockchain. In essence, Bitcoin becomes more valuable as adoption grows. “Metcalfe’s law is a mathematical and scientific fact, like gravity and E=mc2,” said Peterson.
Peterson’s “lowest price forward” model is a competitor to the most popular Bitcoin valuation model, stock-to-flow (S2F), which is created by Crypto Twitter user PlanB and predicts a Bitcoin price of $288,000 by the next halving.
However, ByteTree co-founder and chief investment officer Charlie Morris recently authored a report attempting to debunk the S2F model. Morris says that since Bitcoin’s supply is fixed, the demand can determine the price better, and pointed out the economic role of Bitcoin miners is diminishing over time.
“There are many reasons why the price of Bitcoin can rise or fall,” said Morris. “But S2F is not one of them.”
Peterson’s 7,718 Twitter followers are much less than PlanB’s 139,200, so his message may not quite have the reach of S2F just yet. Despite their differences, both price prediction models see a bullish trend for Bitcoin. In future
“You’ll see some amazing things happen with Bitcoin in 2021,” said Peterson.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.